As the Russians began to encircle a Ukrainian pocket southeast of Avdiivka, Oleh, a Ukrainian soldier, received this order: "There will be no evacuation. Leave 300 (the wounded).” The Russians seem to have gained the upper hand on the frontline, as Ukrainian forces are forced to conserve critical munition and fight against an increasingly adaptable and robust Russian military. On the heels of this chaotic retreat from a key strategic position, the United States House of Representatives has taken recess instead of passing a needed military aid package making tangible impacts on the Ukraine frontline. Ukrainian troops are fighting a war of attrition against a larger, better-supplied enemy. At the same, another critical battle has entered the floor of the US House of Representatives as it considers a new Ukrainian military aid.

In the past, the United States Congress has taken a critical role in supplying weapons systems and supplies, committing more than $47 billion in security assistance. While some may question the cost of such aid, the benefits far outweigh the expenses. Support for Ukraine has protected its independence, strengthened the NATO alliance, and weakened Russia in quantifiable ways. The proposed $60 billion Senate bill waiting to be heard on the House floor holds profound importance in maintaining previous United States commitments to the fight in Ukraine. 

The bill being considered consisted of $20 billion to replenish the US stockpile of weapons, about $14 billion for Ukraine to buy weapons from the United States, and about $8 billion to sustain Ukraine's government. These funds are critical to Ukraine, and the longer they are delayed, the more lives are lost. In a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference, Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg emphasized the pressing need of US aid: “And that has a direct impact on the frontline in Ukraine. So of course, it's not about making the right decision, but it's about making the right decision early and as quickly as possible because it's urgent.” The lack of weapons and ammunition only supplied by the United States endangers the combat effectiveness of Ukraine troops and could cause decisive retreats such as in Avdiivka. 

This trend has a risk of increasing as Russia's artillery ammunition outpaces Ukrainian supplies. According to an Estonia Foreign Intelligence report, "Russia's advantage over Ukraine in terms of available artillery ammunition will likely continue to grow in 2024 unless Western countries can quickly step up the production and delivery of artillery ammunition to Ukraine." This aid bill provides funding for US artillery stockpile replenishments and funding for purchases by Ukraine. As Russia imports vast amounts of artillery ammunition from North Korea, Ukrainian shortages are providing Russia with an increased battlefield advantage, as about 70 percent of Ukrainian casualties result from indirect Russian fire from artillery and rockets. The longer this bill is delayed, the longer Ukraine will remain unable to respond to Russian advances and indirect fire, increasing Ukraine's casualties at a time when their manpower shortages are forcing the government to consider further mobilization. The US bill in consideration is a substantial and logical solution to provide appropriations intended to supply munitions able to sustain Ukraine's fighting capabilities.

The US commitment to this battle has been clearly stated to the world and, most importantly, to their NATO allies who have contributed significant aid to Ukraine. Yet, the critical production shortages in Europe put the United States at the forefront of lethal assistance in Ukraine. Oleksandr, a sergeant with Ukraine's military intelligence, told NBC News, "If that aid is stalled for another couple of weeks or even months, it's inevitable the Russians will break through Ukraine's defenses across the front lines." Messages like this undermine Ukraine’s ability to hold the advantage, and grant Russia the prospect of success, by raising doubts about US commitment. This uncertainty extends to US allies such as Japan and Korea that have committed aid to Ukraine and are looking to the United States for long-term stability against China's regional aggression. The United States must affirm its central role in these alliances by assuring its allies it can be a committed partner and back up its rhetoric with action. As the congressmen opposed to this aid package consider their next actions, they must understand the direct consequences they have on the Ukraine war and US commitments.